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How it works

What is P(Doom)?
P(Doom) is the probability that artificial intelligence will cause human extinction or catastrophic permanent harm to civilization within the next 50 years.

How is the score calculated?
A comprehensive analytical framework is applied across multiple frontier AI models. The displayed percentage is the median of these independent forecasts.

How often does it update?
The score is recalculated monthly or when significant breakthroughs occur.

Who created this?
Created by Michael Allegri. Follow updates on X.